master-cooks | Why Coffee Could Get A Lot More Expensive In 2025

Coffee prices are projected to rise significantly by 2025 due to a combination of environmental, economic, and geopolitical factors. Climate change has increasingly disrupted coffee-growing regions, particularly in countries like Brazil and Vietnam, which are major producers. Unpredictable weather patterns, including prolonged droughts and unexpected frosts, have severely affected crop yields, leading to supply shortages. Additionally, the rising costs of agricultural inputs like fertilizers and labor are contributing to higher production costs, which are expected to be passed on to consumers. Economic factors such as inflation and fluctuating currency exchange rates have also played a role in the anticipated price increase. As the cost of living rises globally, the expenses associated with processing, packaging, and transporting coffee have grown, further pressuring the supply chain. Geopolitical tensions and trade policies may exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to tariffs or supply chain disruptions that could increase costs for coffee importers and exporters. Furthermore, the growing global demand for coffee, driven by emerging markets and changing consumer preferences, is putting additional strain on an already stressed supply chain. As demand continues to outpace supply, prices are expected to rise, making coffee a more expensive commodity in the near future.

And it's probably not just a one-off bad-weather event

The outlook for coffee enthusiasts is becoming increasingly grim. Coffee plants flourish in conditions that are neither excessively dry nor overly wet, and as evidenced by the frost issues in Brazil, they require warm temperatures ranging from 70 to 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If the conditions are too wet or too dry, the plants either perish or yield less coffee. A decrease in coffee production, coupled with rising demand, inevitably leads to higher prices. The significant concern is that such extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently due to climate change. Therefore, the droughts and heavy rains that impacted Brazil's coffee harvest in 2024 should not be viewed as isolated incidents; similar weather patterns could lead to further price hikes.

It's important to note that the price set by farmers for coffee differs from what consumers pay at cafés or grocery stores. The supply chain includes various players, such as roasters and wholesalers, who all add their own costs before the product reaches the retail stage. Experts consulted by the BBC indicate that coffee companies have recently absorbed some of these price increases from suppliers to maintain customer satisfaction, but they are likely to pass on new price hikes to consumers in 2025. The exact increase you might see will depend on several factors, but you can anticipate a rise of at least 50 cents per pound, potentially reaching up to $1.

Why Coffee Could Get A Lot More Expensive In 2025

And it's probably not just a one-off bad-weather event

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